The 49ers’ chase for a playoff spot this year is going to be a fascinating departure from where they were a season ago.
Barring some sort of catastrophe that eliminates them from the race entirely over the final seven games, San Francisco could wind up as high as the No. 2 seed, and as low as the No. 7 seed.
The Eagles haven’t clinched the No. 1 seed, but the 49ers could win out and still not catch a Philadelphia club that has looked like one of the two best teams in football all year.
Realistically though every playoff spot below No. 1 is open for the 49ers. That’s a dramatically different path than the one they were on last year where they were fighting for one of the final two playoff spots. They wound up earning the No. 6 seed, a game up on the Eagles, but they needed a win in the final weekend just to secure that spot, and hopes of anything higher than No. 6 died several weeks before that.
The 49ers enter Week 13 as the NFC’s No. 3 seed. In fact, because of their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks and their two-game lead on the fourth-seeded Buccaneers, they won’t exit Week 13 any lower than third. The problem for San Francisco as they try and climb up one spot is that they won’t finish the weekend any higher either.
Minnesota has a two-game cushion on the 49ers, so even if the Vikings slip up against the Jets at home, they’ll still be at the No. 2 spot.
On the 49ers’ end, the recipe for moving up is simple. They have to keep winning, and they need the Vikings to lose some games. Neither will be particularly easy for San Francisco. They have games left against the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Seahawks and the upstart Commanders.
Meanwhile, the Vikings still have three divisional games left, along with bouts against the Jets, Giants and Colts. The two New York clubs both hold playoff spots prior to Week 13’s action, so the climb for Minnesota isn’t guaranteed to be easy either.
Still, it’s hard to envision the 49ers getting above that third spot where they’d host the No. 6 seed on Wild Card Weekend. Even if they win out, they’d need the Vikings to lose two of their remaining six games, and could leapfrog them if at least one of those losses is to an NFC team since the first tiebreaker after head-to-head is conference record.
Football Outsiders gives the 49ers an overall 96.0 percent chance to make the playoffs, and an 85.2 percent chance to win the division. Their most likely playoff seed is that No. 3 spot at 41 percent, while their chances to get to No. 2 sit at 35.3 percent.
The Vikings’ chances for the second seed are 54.0 percent. Conversely, they’re a 38.2 percent chance to be the No. 3.
If the 49ers do wind up as the No. 2 seed, it means they’ll have home field advantage at least until the conference championship. It would also mean they played outstanding football down the stretch. They probably won’t get there given how well the Vikings are playing, but watch out for San Francisco in January if they do.