I’m sure you can guess which 4
The reigning Offensive Player of the Year hasn’t touched the field during the preseason while dealing with a calf injury. However, that isn’t scaring people off from predicting another huge season in 2024 for Christian McCaffrey. On nearly 340 touches, McCaffrey finished with 1,459 rushing yards, 564 receiving yards, and 21 total touchdowns in 2023.
With the 49ers targeting another deep run into January and February, McCaffrey will be the focal point of the offense—Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com projects McCaffrey to lead the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, total touches, and total touchdowns.
Rushing Yards – 1,398
Frelund’s projection model has McCaffrey repeating as the NFL’s rushing king for the first time since Derrick Henry accomplished the feat in 2019 and 2020. McCaffrey edged out Henry in 2023 by nearly 300 yards, but Jonathan Taylor will come up just short of McCaffrey’s 1,398 yards with 1,356 yards. Rounding out the top five behind Taylor and McCaffrey are Breece Hall with 1,289 yards, Bijan Robinson with 1,285 yards, and Henry with 1,269 yards.
Rushing Touchdowns – 13
Taylor and Henry come in tied for second with ten touchdowns, and David Montgomery and Kyren Williams fill out spots four and five with nine touchdowns each.
Here is what Frelund says about her projection:
It shouldn’t be too surprising seeing McCaffrey at the top of this list, as well, but David Montgomery’s placement below could raise a few eyebrows. It shouldn’t, though. First of all, Detroit arguably boasts the best offensive line in football. Secondly, Montgomery’s body control — i.e., his ability to keep his center of gravity optimized for speed — improved last season, per computer vision. This produces more yards after contact and increases the odds of explosive runs (10-plus yards). And as we saw in 2023, Montgomery and the electric Jahmyr Gibbs both have the opportunity to eat in Ben Johnson’s offense.
Total Touches – 354
While 354 touches would pace the NFL, it would increase from last season’s sizeable workload. Kyren Williams (349), Travis Ettiene (347), Breece Hall (337), and Bijan Robinson (333) round out the top five.
Frelund also points out that McCaffrey achieved his fastest burst (speed reached in first 3 yards traveled once the ball is snapped, per computer vision) in 2022 since his rookie 2017 season and somehow bested that mark in 2023.
Total Touchdowns – 18
Eighteen touchdowns would be a decrease from 2023, but according to Frelund’s model, the five-touchdown gap from first to second would be the biggest in the 12 seasons of her projections.
Kyren Williams (13), Breece Hall (11), CeeDee Lamb (11), and Bijan Robinson (11) finish out the top five behind McCaffrey.
Sure, there is the hesitance to continue McCaffrey’s workload from last season, considering the running back cliff for many running backs. The problem is McCaffrey isn’t just any running back, and the 49ers will still rely on their workhorse in 2024.