No number should surprise you when we’re talking about Brock Purdy’s extension

Trevor Lawrence’s recent extension is more proof that Brock Purdy is set to be a very wealthy man if he stays healthy

Nothing moves the needle like a quarterback contract in the NFL. Every fan believes their quarterback is worthy of a top-10 or even contract resetting money. The outside world generally has doubts, while the truth is somewhere in between.

On Thursday, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence received a contract extension worth up to $275 million, with $142 million fully guaranteed. Lawrence’s average annual value is on par with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burow’s at $55 million. Lawrence’s guarantees are about four million less than Burrow’s but higher than the deal Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who sits at $135 million.

It doesn’t help that the Cleveland Browns signed Deshaun Watson to a $230 million fully guaranteed deal, which screwed up the market. But the NFL is operating as if that’s an outlier deal.

So, where does San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy fit into this equation? His agent has his eyes on social media, retweeting this tweet from The Athletic’s David Lombardi:

If I’m an agent, I’m sharing any Purdy propaganda I come across.

But EPA/CPOE has several flaws. While CPOE doesn’t account for certain plays, like drops, EPA is a team stat. On the surface, it’s cool to see Purdy rank so highly. Then, you look at the top 19 and come away thinking, ‘OK, maybe this stat doesn’t hold a lot of weight’ when you look at the top four quarterbacks compared to the bottom four:

Lawrence ranks 16th because he cannot catch the ball himself:

If you swapped quarterback Lawrence with Purdy, who finished fourth in the MVP voting in his first full season as a starter, the discussion about his quality would be different. This upcoming season, Purdy has a chance to surpass the Burrow and Lawrence deals if he can match his production from a season ago. Back-to-back seasons throwing more than 30 touchdowns paired with another Super Bowl appearance, and Brock might be able to write the check himself.

There isn’t a number that would surprise me. The last pick in the draft from a couple of years ago could top $60 million per season. It’s wild to say that out loud, given who Purdy was “supposed” to be coming into the NFL. But he’s the starting quarterback on a championship-caliber team.

Would you be surprised if Purdy’s contract was the max value and he had north of $150 million with a total of $300 million? We’re trending that way if Purdy remains healthy.