Wide receiver is second, with much longer odds
Vegas knows. Well, mostly. I remember leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft when every national reporter — and some of the local beat — did their best to convince us the San Francisco 49ers were taking Alabama quarterback Mac Jones.
Jones was the betting favorite to go No. 3 overall until about two hours before the Niners were on the clock. Then, those odds shifted. North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance went from a slight underdog to the overwhelming favorite. Sure enough, Lance was the pick.
It’s been a significant period of time since the 49ers had a first-round pick. But San Francisco, unless they decide to trade out of Day 1, will have a selection next Thursday for the first time since the trade that sent shockwaves through the NFL world.
DraftKings Sportsbook has odds for the Niners’ positions in Round 1. Unsurprisingly, offensive line is the current favorite with just under a week to go. Here’s a look at each position based on the odds, with the implied probability listed second:
Offensive lineman: -150/60 percent
Wide Receiver: +300/25 percent
Defensive line/Edge: +425/19 percent
Cornerback: +475/17.4 percent
Tight End: +2500/3.8 percent
Safety: +4000/2.4 percent
Linebacker: +4000/2.4 percent
Quarterback: +10000/1 percent
Running Back: +20000/.5 percent
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper: +20000/.5 percent
A lot could change in six days. There’s also no way for these odds to factor in a positional run. Most draft pundits believe as many as nine offensive linemen could be drafted in the first round.
Still, knowing the future at center, right guard and right tackle is uncertain, and remembering what you saw last, it’s easy to pencil in whoever the best available offensive lineman is at pick No. 31.
Graham Barton, Tyler Guyton, and Jordan Morgan have been the 49ers’ most popular picks during this draft cycle. Tackles Amarius Mims and JC Latham are unlikely to fall to the Niners. It’s worth noting that the team has met with BYU offensive tackle Kingsley Suamaataia, and they could want his fifth-year option despite some believing he may be a reach at No. 31.
It is mildly surprising that wide receivers are higher than defensive linemen. Then again, the odds of a first-round caliber wideout being available late in the first round as opposed to a defensive lineman feel significantly higher.
Chop Robinson and Laiatu Latu are consistently mocked somewhere in their 20s, although Jared Verse has fallen to the early 20s in mocks. As for receivers, Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas, Adonai Mitchell, and Ladd McConkey are projected to go around No. 31.
There are still mock drafts out there that have the 49ers taking a player like Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. Clemson’s Nate Wiggins and Iowa’s Cooper DeJean are also being mocked in the 20s.
The position groups after that are essentially lottery bets.