Trey Lance is the 49ers’ biggest question mark going into the 2022 season. His ability to overcome his inexperience will determine just how high San Francisco’s ceiling is, and it won’t be easy stepping in to replace veteran Jimmy Garoppolo who led the club to the NFC championship game in the only two seasons where he started a majority of the 49ers’ games. There’ll undoubtedly be ups and downs for Lance with some struggles on things that were easy to an experienced veteran like Garoppolo. However, there’s one very key area Lance should offer an immediate improvement.
NFL Wire’s Doug Farrar wrote a piece breaking down the NFL’s worst quarterbacks against every type of coverage. Garoppolo’s name shows up late in the piece as the league’s worst signal caller near the goal line. Via Farrar:
One of those limitations in 2021 was Garoppolo’s performance in the red zone — specifically against red zone coverage. There, he completed two of 10 passes for three yards, three air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, an ANY/A of 4.3, and a passer rating of 79.2. Those touchdown/interception numbers seem pretty good, but when you look at all the incompletions close to the goal line, a clearer picture emerges.
Farrar went on to illustrate how Garoppolo can be late pulling the trigger in the red zone, leading to incompletions on downs where a receiver was wide open earlier in the play.
This should be something Lance can help with for a handful of reasons.
His release isn’t as quick as Garoppolo’s, but this is about recognition. Garoppolo just doesn’t see some wide open receivers and it forces him to make tougher throws. Lance could improve that by simply seeing open players. Of course, as with all things in regards to Lance, delivering the football accurately is step two of the equation. The answers to both of these questions won’t be answerable until we see Lance on the field operating the offense as a full-time starter.
Another wrinkle near the goal line will be Lance’s legs. His ability to extend plays and either run for touchdowns or create open throws with the threat of his legs outside the pocket should make his life a little easier in those confined spaces.
It is worth noting that while Garoppolo struggled at the goal line, the 49ers offense was still excellent in the red zone. They were No. 1 in the NFL in red zone conversion rate last season. Part of that was because of Lance though. He checked in to help notch a couple touchdowns near the end zone during his rookie campaign, including a TD to Trent Sherfield on his first throw as a pro.
There’s plenty of uphill climbing for Lance to do before he can call himself a successful NFL quarterback, and there’s even more climbing to do before he’s able to lead the team to an NFC championship game. However, if he can help San Francisco’s red zone offense by adding improved play at the goal line, they might rack up points at a rate we haven’t seen under Shanahan.