The 49ers didn’t switch things up against Seattle when Nick Bosa left the game and it hurt them.
The San Francisco 49ers are heading into a crucial game on the schedule this weekend as they take on the Green Bay Packers, standing at 5-5 on the season.
The 49ers go into a two-game road trip likely needing to win at least one game between the Packers and the Buffalo Bills, as it seems that 10 wins will be the minimum required to make the playoffs this year in the NFC.
They’re in this situation currently because of a late-game letdown this past weekend against the Seattle Seahawks, where the 49ers lost 20-17 thanks to a game-winning touchdown drive, where Geno Smith rushed for the 13-yard go-ahead score with just 12 seconds left.
While there were a number of miscues, especially on the offensive end, that final touchdown drive, which lasted 11 plays and 80 yards over 2 minutes and 26 seconds, was the nail in the coffin sending the 49ers back to .500 in a game they had a number of chances to close out.
Defensively, San Francisco was without Nick Bosa and clearly looked tired, but they gave up two third down conversions, while allowing Geno Smith to convert a 2nd & 13 with a scramble and score the go-ahead touchdown with another rush to win the game.
Interestingly, during that sequence without Bosa, the 49ers elected not to blitz, instead trusting a hampered pass-rush, which wasn’t able to affect the quarterback much during the final drive.
Should the team have looked to blitz more?
“Yeah, looking back at it, obviously when they go down and score, you’d like to [blitz more],” head coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged on Wednesday. “Most of it was two-minute no-huddle calls. I know we got to one when they did huddle up. We got a simulated pressure, I believe, once too.
“But I think it was pretty obvious how we tired out on that drive and especially with him being able to scramble like that was the biggest thing, creating too much space in the pocket. When you do blitz they get rid of it. That’s why they got that eight-yard gain on first down. But at least giving him no access to get out of there would’ve helped.”
The no-huddle aspect hurt the 49ers in looking to send blitzes, as the communication becomes harder, which may have played a factor in the decision.
“You don’t see a lot of blitzes in no-huddle,” Shanahan continued. “People usually have one, sometimes two, but when people are going fast at the line, it’s a little different communicating to the 11 guys how to get a blitz and things like that. But it doesn’t mean you can’t do it. We do, do it, but no one does it as much.”
That leads us to this weekend’s game against the Packers, where the 49ers could be without Bosa for the entirety of the game.
Bosa, dealing with hip and oblique issues, was clearly laboring at the end of the game last weekend and acknowledged after the game that it may be difficult to suit up this weekend due to the pain. He did not participate in practice Wednesday and his status may become clearer based on his participation Thursday.
If the 49ers aren’t able to go with their star pass-rusher, they’re going to need to find ways to pressure the quarterback, especially given the way that Packers star Jordan Love has played this year.
Looking at the numbers, Love has been fairly comfortable in clean pockets this year, completing 68.1 percent of his passes, while having a 13:6 touchdown-interception ratio.
Those numbers drop to a 48 percent completion rate and three touchdowns to five interceptions when being blitzed, with Love’s turnover-worthy play rate spiking to 3.9 percent, far higher than his big-time-throw rate of 2.3 percent in those situations.
Looking specifically at when he’s blitzed, Love’s completion rate drops nearly 10 percent this season, while his turnover-worthy play rate increases from 3.2 percent to 4.8 percent.
The Packers quarterback has been turnover-prone this year, leading the NFL in interceptions, but his struggles have been specifically when he’s blitzed, leading a path for the 49ers to have success defensively.
Now, that hasn’t been the case during Love’s career, as he actually had a great 2023 season against the blitz, completing 65 percent of his passes, while throwing for 10 touchdowns to just one interception.
But, he’s struggled in that department in 2024, which will be something that the 49ers should look to attack, even if it’s away from their MO.
San Francisco ranks 20th in the NFL in blitz rate this season, as they’ve looked to primarily rush four while trusting their coverage. That’ll definitely need to change without Bosa, as no other player has over a 15 percent pass-rush win percentage.
Can defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen make the necessary changes this weekend against the Packers?