Using Jimmy G and the rookie QBs from last year for reference
During today’s episode of The Shanaplan, we decided to project 49ers quarterback Trey Lance’s 2022 season with a seven over/unders. We used Jimmy Garoppolo’s numbers from the 2019 and 2021 seasons, as well as last year’s rookie quarterback class, to set a baseline.
Over/Under 13.5 starts
We can’t dismiss Lance suffering a finger injury last year during training camp or a left knee sprain during the season. However, fans are concerned that Kyle Shanahan may run Lance up the middle and cause unnecessary wear and tear on his young quarterback.
For as much as people believe the Ty Davis-Price draft pick was to ensure Deebo Samuel doesn’t have to carry the load, that pick signals that Lance won’t be used nearly as much as a designed runner or in short-yardage situations. I went with the over.
Garoppolo threw 20 touchdowns last year and 27 in 2019. In ‘19, Jimmy had three games where he threw four touchdown passes.
Mac Jones threw 22 last year, with Davis Mills throwing 16 in 11 starts. Trevor Lawrence had 12. We went with the under, assuming Lance will make up for it with rushing touchdowns.
The first play that comes to mind when I think of Lance running is in the Packers game of Week 3 last year. The 49ers ran a play that isolated Lance and a defender, and Lance won with speed to the edge for a conversion.
Now, there’s the 4th and goal against Arizona when the Cardinals linebacker stuffed him at the goal line.
Jalen Hurts led all QBs last year with ten rushing touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill had seven. Josh Allen was next with six. So, will Lance be among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks?
Garoppolo threw 13 and 12 in both seasons, where he remained healthy. Jimmy had seven games between 2019 and 2021, where he threw at least two interceptions. We both took the over, assuming there would be inevitable rookie mistakes.
I project Lance to have several 7, 8, and 9-yard scrambles during the course of a game. Those will add up and eventually lead to him going over this total.
Only four quarterbacks last year ran for over 450 yards. Hurts, Lamar, and Josh Allen, were all over 750 yards. After that, only two other quarterbacks surpassed 400 rushing yards.
With variance comes less efficiency. We leaned under as the offense will be more open, leading to more big plays down the field, thus more incompletions. Because Lance has a lower completion percentage than Garoppolo doesn’t mean much of anything.
Garoppolo threw for 3,810 last year and 3,978 in 2019. Mac had 3,800 last year, with Lawrence throwing for 3,641.
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