Deciphering the Las Vegas Raiders’ 2025 Season Strength of Schedule

As we work through the next six months until the beginning of the 2025 season, it should be clear to everyone that the Las Vegas Raiders are in a transitionary period. This might be the very definition of a team in transition, both on and off the field. Without stating the obvious, there is a lot of work to do to make the team competitive, and the reality is that it might take more than a couple of seasons to get there. Yes, the management can make some moves in the offseason, and the Draft will be interesting, but fans’ expectations will be tempered by the fact that their team feels like a longer-term project.

Nevertheless, fans expect to see some improvements in the team for next season, and it is interesting to see how the Raiders will be tested. The exact dates for the Raiders’ games are due to be released in the coming weeks, but we do know who the Raiders will be playing and where their campaign ranks in terms of Strength of Schedule (SoS). There’s often some debate over the actual relevance of SoS, mainly as teams will make changes in the offseason. Yet, it does have some merit, and it can be used for everything from weighing up NFL point spreads early in the season to seeing whether a team is over or underperforming later in the campaign.

Raiders have a Slightly Weaker Schedule

The main takeaway is that the Raiders’ SoS is smack-bang in the middle of the difficulty table, ranking 16^th overall. Last season, the Raiders’ SoS was 10^th overall, so, on paper, it should be a little bit easier. Raiders opponents this season had a combined record of 145-144 (0.502) last season, whereas the season before it was 0.512. It is a marginal difference, but that’s normal. Still, it gets pretty interesting when we break it all down.

As you might expect, some of the ‘strength’ of the schedule comes from the AFC West itself. The Raiders have three home and three away games against the Chiefs (15-2), Chargers (11-6), and Broncos (10-7). It was the second-strongest division in the NFL last season, just behind the NFC North. What does, so to speak, is lift the average of (perceived) difficulty of the Raiders’ schedule, as they will have to play six games against teams with a combined 36-15 record.

Opportunity against teams in the AFC South

Yet, the logic dictates that the AFC West bumping up the average means it must be brought down elsewhere to bring us closer to that 0.502 mark, and that takes us to the conference opponents, the AFC South. The Texans, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans combined for a 25-43 record last season. It was the second weakest in the NFL. If you throw in the other conference opponents based on divisional rankings, you’ll see that the Raiders also have the Browns (3-14) and the Patriots (4-13). The inter-conference opponent based on division placement is the Bears (5-12). Finally, there are the ties against the NFC East, which pits the Raiders against the Super Bowl champions, the Eagles and last season’s surprise package, the Commanders, and the less daunting prospect of the Cowboys and Giants.

All of this seems pretty logical. Indeed, the NFL makes it so when organizing the schedule. Yet, it does stand out that the Raiders have at least seven opponents who were considered weak last season. We mentioned that this is all only relevant “on paper,” as a team like the Jaguars or Patriots might make some big offseason moves. Anything can happen. However, it is also arguable that these teams should be a yardstick for the Raiders and the organization’s progress. Nobody will bat an eyelid should the Raiders lose to the Eagles or Chiefs, but there is a clutch of teams on the schedule that are in a similar funk to the Raiders. Those are the teams the Raiders should be beating to demonstrate that the green shoots of a rebuild are present.