Before the start of their Week 18 game, the Raiders have learned their fate with respect to this year’s NFL draft. Vegas will own the top selection for the 2026 edition of the event. 
The Giants were among the teams playing in the early window for the final day of the regular season. Only New York could have overtaken Vegas for the top spot in the order, but that would have required a win against Dallas. However, the Giants beat the Cowboys 34-17. That result clinched the No. 1 pick for the Raiders.
Today’s development represents the expected outcome in this case. The Raiders lost to the Giants in Week 17, the contest which was widely known to have massive implications for the draft order. Both teams drew criticism for their roster handling in the build-up to that contest, particularly the Raiders. Tight end Brock Bowers was moved to injured reserve while edge rusher Maxx Crosby was shut down for the remainder of the season against his wishes.
Head coach Pete Carrol also objected to the idea of sidelining Crosby, who is slated to undergo meniscus surgery. The five-time Pro Bowler has already spoken out about the decision to shut him down, something which has fueled a new round of trade speculation. Managing the Crosby situation will be critical for the Raiders, a team which could undergo a number of notable changes soon.
The 2025 offseason saw numerous arrivals at all levels of the organization. That included a new coaching staff led by Carroll, although his tenure has not gone as planned. A widespread expectation exists Carroll will prove to be a one-and-done staffer. New offensive and special teams coordinators will also be required during the hiring cycle. In the meantime, attention in the front office will turn to the possibility of selecting a new quarterback.
Geno Smith was acquired via trade in a Carroll reunion, and he is under contract through 2027. The veteran has fallen well short of expectations this season, however, and the team could seek out a replacement via the draft. Smith could be retained as a bridge starter, but the acquisition of a future franchise signal-caller would be seen as a pivotal move for a Raiders team desperately in need of stability on several fronts.
Fernando Mendoza is seen by many as the top quarterback in the 2026 class, one which in general is not held in high regard. The Heisman winner is set to lead Indiana in the CFP semifinal against Oregon. That means a matchup against Dante Moore – whose intentions regarding the NFL draft are still not known – is upcoming. Vegas’ evaluation of both passers will be a major storyline over the coming months, presuming both wind up turning pro.
The rest of the draft order will be finalized as the remaining games around the league play out. Shuffling in the top five could prove to be impactful given the dearth of high-end QB prospects relative to the demand amongst many teams. In any event, the Raiders – who of course will look to avoid a repeat of the JaMarcus Russell situation from the last time they selected first overall – find themselves in position to kick off this year’s draft.