Geno Smith‘s Raiders debut has not gone as expected, something that could be applied to the Las Vegas situation as a whole. The Smith-Pete Carroll floor-raising hopes are dashed, and the Super Bowl-winning HC is in danger of being a one-and-done — for a franchise that has failed to find stability this decade.
The Raiders lost Smith to a shoulder injury in Week 14, a loss to the Broncos, and the well-paid starter is not expected to return to face the Eagles in Week 15. Kenny Pickett is on track to start against one of his former teams, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport notes. This injury comes weeks after Smith suffered a quad contusion; the latter ailment did not force him to miss any starts.
Philadelphia traded Pickett after one season, marking the second of the former first-rounder’s three trade transactions to occur since March 2024. Philly sent Pickett to Cleveland this past March, leading to rumblings he would be the favorite to start for the Browns to open the season. A significant hamstring injury sidetracked any Pickett-QB1 hopes in Cleveland, and the Browns dealt him to the Raiders — who were looking for an Aidan O’Connell injury replacement — just before the season.
Although O’Connell is back off IR, the Raiders turned to Pickett to replace Smith on Sunday. Pickett threw a touchdown pass in garbage time, completing 8 of 11 passes for 97 yards. The Eagles installed the ex-Steeler draftee as their backup last season, acquiring him in a trade package headlined by a third-round pick, but decided Tanner McKee was ready to move up this offseason. Pickett facing a reeling Philly squad would certainly be interesting given both sides’ familiarity, though the Raiders’ current form makes them heavy underdogs regardless of QB.
Who the Raiders start in Week 15 is obviously less significant than their post-2025 plans, given their 2-11 record. Smith’s extension stood to buy the team some time in its quest for a true answer at QB. The team did not want Sam Darnold and joined the Giants in striking out on Matthew Stafford. One of the QB-needy teams to pass on Shedeur Sanders, the Raiders still profile as a team interested in a first-round addition here.
Smith’s two-year, $75MM extension runs through 2027 and carries $18.5MM in guaranteed salary for 2026. That would be the only dead money the Raiders would need to eat in the event of a release. Smith’s form this season certainly makes his Vegas future unstable, particularly if Carroll is out after one year.
Smith, 35, angled for a Seahawks extension and declined an offer similar in value to Darnold’s three-year, $100.5MM deal. He expected to be a Raider after Carroll was hired but has struggled for most of the season. Smith’s 14 interceptions lead the league, and only Cam Ward sits behind him (among 31 qualified passers) in QBR.
A return to the backup level may well be in the cards — via a Raiders demotion after a first-round investment or elsewhere — for 2026. For now, it will be interesting to see if Smith reclaims his job. Carroll has backed his former Seattle pupil this year, but concern about Smith’s form emerged as early as October. What is clear is the Raiders, who had Derek Carr in place as QB1 for nine seasons, will be looking hard at QBs for a fourth straight offseason.