Raiders training camp prediction: Aidan O’Connell wins starting quarterback role

Las Vegas rolling with 2nd year quarterback while veteran Gardner Minshew waits in the wings ready to step in when needed

This is how I see the Las Vegas Raider quarterback battle going down: Aidan O’Connell wins the starting role with Gardner Minshew II ready to step in when needed.

And I don’t think that’s going out on a limb, folks.

Despite Antonio Pierce stating there’s no clear leader in the battle between O’Connell and Minshew for the QB1 role during his training camp press conference Tuesday afternoon and the team will take it’s time determining who leads the Raiders.

“When it’s right, when it’s obvious … it’s a no brainer,” Pierce said. “No need to rush it. But when it’s clear, when it’s evident, then you need to make that decision.”

When the training camp and preseason competition is done, I’m firmly in the camp Las Vegas is going to rock with the second-year quarterback while having veteran insurance behind him.

It really boils down to the Silver & Black not quite knowing everything O’Connell has to offer as an NFL quarterback. And it’d be wise find that out in 2024 because the Purdue product is still an enigma of sorts to the Raiders. We got glimpses of what he can become — good and bad — last season, but does O’Connell have more to offer?

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On the flipside, the team has much better scope of what Minshew can deliver based on the veteran’s body of work as he embarks on his sixth year in the league. Las Vegas got to see the quarterback up close and personal in the 2023 matchup that saw Minshew help lead the Indianapolis Colts to a 23-20 Week 17 win over the Raiders (he was an efficient 15 of 23 for 224 yards with one touchdown and zero interceptions in that tilt). With Minshew’s experience and moxie, the Raiders can turn to 28-year-old signal caller if things go awry with O’Connell at the helm of the offense.

Game Manager or More?

Look, I’m not going to sugar coat this. While I do believe O’Connell will emerge as QB1 for the Raiders, it’s difficult for me to envision him coming out like gangbusters and becoming a difference-maker in Year 2.

The 6-foot-3 and 210-pound 25 year old (26 when the Raiders take on the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 of the regular season) has the look of a game manager.

Our Matt Holder summed it up best in his mailbag earlier this week: “I wouldn’t expect O’Connell to become an All-Pro or Pro Bowler (and I mean a legit Pro Bowler, not one that makes it because 10 other guys drop out), but he can become a good game manager this season. I think the ceiling is he plays similarly to the 2022 version of Brock Purdy as someone who takes care of the football, operates the system well and makes good decisions but isn’t necessarily a game-changer.”

But I’m not obtuse, either. While I may not see O’Connell making a quantum leap in his second year, I can’t say he won’t get to that point. It’s entirely possible he can become more than 2022 Purdy, Alex Smith, or Trent Dilfer (2000 Baltimore Ravens version) type game manager.

And in order to find that out, the Raiders need to give O’Connell all the opportunities to prove himself. . Serviceable game manager or game changer, the results should speak for themselves and forge a path for Las Vegas’ decision makers on the long-term outlook at the all-important position.

How O’Connell performs this season dictates whether or not the Raiders use an early-round draft pick on a quarterback next April or ink another free agent next March. After all, the league is a quarterback-driven one and the Raiders do reside in the AFC West that’s home to arguably the best quarterback in the league (not to mention defending Super Bowl champions).

Support System

Originally, I was going to note that rolling with O’Connell can be categorized as familiarity. But taking into consideration the two biggest parts of the coaching staff are brand new — offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and offensive line coach James Cregg — the term “familiarity” doesn’t have really compute for the Raiders. O’Connell and several parts of the offense — sans perhaps wide receiver Davante Adams — are neophytes to the scheme and system Getsy is putting into place in Las Vegas.

Speaking of Adams, it’s very difficult to ignore the wideout’s confidence in O’Connell — for whatever that’s worth (which appears to be a lot).

As Adams said in the clip above, O’Connell was certainly thrown into the fire as a developmental fourth-round pick (135th overall) from the 2023 NFL Draft. His first start was against the Bolts that saw former Raiders pass rusher Khalil Mack rack up six sacks. O’Connell absorbed seven total sacks, fumbling three separate times, and going 24 of 39 for 238 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception. Even then, however, O’Connell had a chance to potentially knot the score on the Raiders’ final drive that ended with the pick the quarterback threw.

Overall, in the 11 games he played (10 starts), O’Connell was anything but atrocious and played relatively well for a mid-round rookie thrust into action. He finished with a 5-5 mark as starter compiling a respectable stat line of: 213 of 343 passing (62 percent completion clip) for 2,218 with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The last pick he threw was in the Week 13 3-0 loss to the Minnesota Vikings and he went four straight games without firing an interception.

O’Connell’s worst statistical game was Week 11 at the Miami Dolphins where he went 24 of 41 (58.5 percent) for 271 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Coincidentally, the final score was 20-13 and the Raiders’ offensive drives in the fourth quarter trailing by that final tally were thwarted by a turnover on downs and back-to-back picks.

O’Connell has the poise, good arm strength, precision accuracy to make the throws and live in the pocket. And that can make up for his lack of scrambling ability (I’ve dubbed him cement shoes because of this), especially when he’s protected. His quick release and equally swift decision making are big pluses, too. Combine all that with needing to find out exactly what kind of quarterback the Raiders have on their hands and you’ve got your QB1 — for better or worse.