The Raiders have somehow regressed despite moving from the Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell quarterback situation to Geno Smith, with the Antonio Pierce-to-Pete Carroll transition also failing to move the needle in the win column. One domino has already fallen in Las Vegas, as Chip Kelly is out as OC. More may well be positioned to topple soon.
Kelly had loomed as a Raiders OC target for two offseasons, being hired shortly after the team installed Carroll as HC. Minority owner Tom Brady is believed to have wielded strong influence in the Kelly hire, according to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini. This is unsurprising given how much power Brady is believed to have in Vegas, and Russini adds Mark Davis‘ preferred football czar is frustrated with the team’s overall performance.
Brady’s frustration likely contributed to the team’s decision to fire Kelly. It has now been three straight years of a Raiders OC being dismissed in-season. The team canned Mick Lombardi shortly after firing Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler in 2023, and Pierce booted Luke Getsy midway through the 2024 campaign. With Smith taking 10 sacks in an abysmal loss to the Browns, the Raiders acted early yet again. Kelly, who became the NFL’s highest-paid coordinator (at $6MM per year), is an NFL one-and-done once again. His most recent NFL post, as 49ers HC in 2016, ended after one year.
The Raiders firing Kelly now strips Carroll from having the chance to make this move in the offseason. Such an effort occurring then would have given the veteran leader a chance to frame that move as a way to convince Brady, Davis and GM John Spytek positive 2026 change would take place. With the firing coming in November, will Carroll have a chance to return as HC in 2026?
Some around the NFL are wondering if Carroll will join Kelly as a Raiders one-and-done, per ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler. The oldest HC in NFL history, the 74-year-old sideline staple has not come especially close to being the floor-raising presence expected in Vegas.
The Raiders made a stark pivot to Carroll after losing out on Ben Johnson, a coach Brady aggressively pursued this offseason (though, the team was not believed to have made an offer to the now-Bears HC). The team is 2-9 and ranks 31st in scoring offense (a unit that ranks 32nd in EPA per play). While EPA slots Patrick Graham‘s defense 20th, the Raiders have lost six games by double figures and have only beaten the one-win Titans since what looks to be a fluky Week 1 triumph in New England.
Carroll, who also fired special teams coordinator Tom McMahon this month, is on a three-year contract that carries an option for a fourth season. Most HC deals cover five or six years, but Carroll’s age undoubtedly factored into the Raiders’ thinking upon designing this deal. No clear succession plan appeared to exist, and with the Raiders at two wins by Thanksgiving, it would shock if Carroll’s replacement was on staff.
Carroll also holds considerably less power than he did in Seattle, with Brady and Spytek heavily involved. Carroll held final roster say with the Seahawks; the 2024 Seattle change was partially structured around John Schneider receiving a chance to fully steer the ship. Brady is highly unlikely to be going anywhere, so the all-time QB great’s fingerprints figure to be on the coaching situation. Carroll, who sat out the 2024 season but became intrigued with the Raiders once Brady was approved as a part-owner, may well be coaching for his job down the stretch this season.