The NHL regular season is nearly here, and the Pacific Division remains one of the most unpredictable in hockey. Using advanced projection models and a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation, here’s how the division could shake out when the dust settles in Last Word on Hockey’s Pacific Division Preview. We bring you the other divisions, too. Be sure to check out the Atlantic, Metropolitan, and Central.
2025-26 Pacific Division Preview
The Top Three
The Pacific looks top-heavy again. Both the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights enter 2025–26 as the class of the division. Edmonton’s depth and superstar power keep them ahead of the pack in most projection models. In the hybrid simulation, which blends Dom Luszczyszyn’s game-level probabilities with JFresh’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) inputs, the Oilers averaged 105 points with a playoff probability over 90 percent.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to drive elite results, while a stabilised blue line and improved secondary scoring make Edmonton a true contender for the Presidents’ Trophy.
Vegas sits just behind at 96 points on average, though their distribution was wider. Some seasons saw them cresting past 105 points when their goaltending held steady, while others had them slip into the low 90s. Still, their top nine remains one of the league’s most complete forward groups, and adding Mitch Marner ensures another playoff-calibre lineup.
The Los Angeles Kings round out the top three. Despite an offseason reshuffle on defence, the model remains optimistic. The Kings averaged 94 points, buoyed by forward depth and a bounce-back season projected from Darcy Kuemper. In roughly three out of four simulations, Los Angeles made the playoffs, confirming their reputation as one of the NHL’s most consistent regular-season teams.
Wild Card Contenders
The Vancouver Canucks headline the next tier. They project for 98 points on average, but their distribution shows the widest spread of the playoff hopefuls. Thatcher Demko’s health is the swing factor. When he stays healthy, Vancouver often hits triple digits in points. When he misses time, the team slides toward the bubble. Elias Pettersson’s bounce-back season and Quinn Hughes’ continued dominance should keep them near the top half of the division.
Behind them, the Calgary Flames hover around 88 points, sitting squarely on the playoff bubble. Last year’s run to 96 points came despite a negative goal differential, something the simulation expects to regress toward average. If Dustin Wolf proves reliable as a full-time starter, Calgary could push higher. Yet the model’s uncertainty about their scoring depth keeps them outside the top three in most iterations.
The Rest
The Seattle Kraken identity crisis continues. After a magical playoff run two years ago, they’ve since plateaued as a middle-bottom team with limited star power. Matty Beniers and Shane Wright headline a group that struggles to generate high-danger chances. Joey Daccord has quietly been elite in goal, saving nearly 20 goals above expected last season. Even with him, Seattle averaged 78.4 points in the simulation.
At the bottom, the San Jose Sharks averaged 68 points across the 100,000-season simulation. Despite having top prospect Macklin Celebrini, the Sharks remain one of the NHL’s youngest and least experienced rosters. Progress will come through player development, not wins.
Dark Horse: Anaheim Ducks
Every year, one team breaks through expectations. This model’s dark horse tag goes to Anaheim.
Anaheim’s ceiling depends on internal growth. Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish must deliver top-six consistency, while Cutter Gauthier‘s sophomore campaign could determine whether the Ducks linger near the basement or start climbing.
The Ducks’ mean projection landed at 88.2 points, a 10-point jump from their 2024-25 finish. Lukas Dostal’s progression into a top-20 starter is a major factor, as is improved special-teams performance. Anaheim’s defensive numbers under Quenneville’s system are expected to tighten significantly after ranking 28th in expected goals against last season.
Our model gives the Ducks a 42 percent chance to claim a wild card spot and a 12 percent chance of finishing top three in the Pacific. That may not sound high, but it represents a real step forward for a young team learning how to win. For a franchise that has spent years rebuilding, this season could mark the transition from promise to production. As Quenneville himself might put it — the Ducks aren’t a punchline anymore.
What the Simulation Tells Us
The Monte Carlo process ran the Pacific Division’s full schedule 100,000 times, factoring in injuries, home-ice advantage, goaltending variance, and roster depth. The results show clear stratification. Edmonton, Vegas, Los Angeles, and Vancouver control the top tier, while Calgary straddles the middle. Seattle, Anaheim, and San Jose fill out the lower third.
Across all runs, the average division-winning total was 104 points, and the playoff cut line hovered around 93 points. That threshold means Calgary or Vancouver could miss the postseason despite decent seasons. It also underlines how parity defines modern hockey. Even the best projections are “less about predicting perfectly and more about being less wrong than everyone else,” as mentioned by The Athletic in their season preview.
Ultimately, the Pacific remains volatile. A hot goaltender or a breakout campaign from a young star could swing ten points either way. That’s the beauty of hockey’s randomness—talent matters, but luck and timing often decide who gets to keep playing in April.
Main Photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie- Imagn Images
The post 2025–26 Pacific Division Preview Including Division Leaders and Darkhorses appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.