Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions from the team at Last Word on Hockey. Each day we break down the matchups and give you insight into projected outcomes using advanced stats and betting analysis. Tonight’s Pacific Division matchup features the Anaheim Ducks visiting the San Jose Sharks in an early-season clash between two clubs looking to stay ahead of the eight ball early in the season.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs San Jose Sharks
2025-26 Head-to-Head: Ducks 0 – 0 Sharks
Time: 7:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)
TV: Victory+, NBCSCA, ESPN+
Location: SAP Center at San Jose, California
Matchup Overview
Anaheim enters this one 0–1–0 after a 3–1 loss to the Seattle Kraken in Joel Quenneville’s coaching debut with the team. The Ducks started strong, outshooting Seattle 17–5 in the first period, but could not sustain pressure as the game wore on. Rookie Beckett Sennecke scored his first NHL goal in the loss, with Mason McTavish earning the primary assist. Meanwhile, the Sharks opened their season with a 3–1 victory, showing early signs of structure under new head coach Ryan Warsofsky. Both teams are building around youth and speed, but Anaheim’s underlying metrics suggest their loss may have been more encouraging than the scoreboard implied.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim controlled 58 percent of Corsi and 55 percent of expected goals at five-on-five via Advanced Hockey Stats, evidence of their progress under Quenneville’s system. Veterans Chris Kreider and Troy Terry helped drive play in transition, while McTavish and Cutter Gauthier were active on the forecheck. Lukas Dostal (.903 SV%) was sharp in net despite limited goal support. Only one game, but the Ducks rank fourth league-wide in xGF/60 following their opener, and with more finishing luck, their process could soon translate into wins. Sennecke’s poised debut adds another dimension to a forward group already heavy on skill.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Beckett Sennecke with 15:49 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Mason McTavish.Seattle: 1Anaheim: 1#ANAvsSEA #SeaKraken #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-10-10T02:44:51.497180Z
San Jose Sharks Storyline
The Sharks fell to 0-0-1 after a hard-luck 4-3 overtime loss to the Vegas Golden Knights in their season opener. Despite the defeat, there were promising signs under new coach Warsofsky. Jeff Skinner, Alexander Wennberg, and Philipp Kurashev each scored, while Shakir Mukhamadullin stood out on the blue line with two assists and a team-leading 66.7 percent expected goals share via MoneyPuck alongside Dmitry Orlov. That pairing controlled play, while the Nick Leddy–John Klingberg duo struggled to contain pressure, posting just 16.7 percent in the same metric. William Eklund generated several high-danger chances, including the sequence that led to Wennberg’s 5-on-3 goal, but San Jose couldn’t close it out after a late misplay by goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic. Even so, the Sharks’ structure and puck movement looked markedly improved from last season, hinting at a more competitive group despite the early heartbreak.
Vegas goal!Scored by Reilly Smith with 03:36 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Shea Theodore.San Jose: 3Vegas: 4#VGKvsSJS #TheFutureIsTeal #VegasBorn
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-10-10T05:06:12.784104Z
Advanced Stats Summary
| Metric | Ducks | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 | Sharks |
| Corsi For % (CF%) | 60.7% | 45.9% | Ducks |
| Expected Goals % (xGF%) | 55.0% | 52.0% | Ducks |
| High-Danger Chances % | 57.1% | 48.6% | Ducks |
| Power Play % | 0.0 | 25.0 | Sharks |
| Penalty Kill % | 80.0 | 75.0 | Ducks |
| Goaltending SV% | .903 (Dostal) | .871 (Nedeljkovic) | Ducks |
| Simulation Win Probability | 52.9% | 47.1% | Ducks |
NHL Prediction
Both teams enter this matchup with encouraging, if imperfect, opening-night efforts. Anaheim outshot Seattle 17–5 in the first period before fading, while San Jose controlled much of its game against Vegas but saw a fluky bounce erase a potential win. Special teams could swing the balance. The Ducks went 0-for-4 on the power play, while the Sharks capitalized on a 5-on-3 opportunity. With both clubs skating on the second half of back-to-backs, this one could turn into a battle of goaltending composure between Lukas Dostal and Alex Nedeljkovic.
Our 100,000-game simulation projects Anaheim as 52.9 percent favourites, with an average score of 3.2 – 3.0 and an over 5.5 probability of 58.5 percent. The Ducks’ strong underlying process gives them a slight edge despite being on the road. Expect Anaheim’s possession game and net-front pressure to gradually wear down San Jose’s defence.
Slight edge to Anaheim, but only barely.
NHL Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (OT)
2025-2026 Season Prediction Record: 0-1
Prop Bets of the Night
Last game was rough for the betting slip, so we will try to get back on track in this one. Look for Mason McTavish over 0.5 points (-130) after logging a primary assist and generating four scoring chances in the opener. His line continues to drive Anaheim’s offence. The second target is Anaheim Over 3.5 team total goals (+125) given San Jose’s poor defence, goaltending, and high event rates. Anaheim’s possession edge and San Jose’s counterattack potential should combine for a lively matchup in the Pacific Division.
2025-2026 Season Betting Record: 0–3 (-3.00 units)
Stats courtesy of: Advanced Hockey Stats, Evolving Hockey, NHL.com, MoneyPuck
Main Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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