Welcome to another Ottawa Senators edition of NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey, on a Saturday night of action on a western road swing, as they play the San Jose Sharks. Check out our statistical breakdown, analysis, storylines, and predictions for not just this one, but games all season long. Can Ottawa out duel San Jose, or will the young guns on the Sharks give the Sens defence fits? Find out our thoughts, right here.
NHL Predictions with the Senators at the Sharks
2024-25 Season Series – Ottawa 2 – 0
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to Watch: SN1, NBCSCA
Location: SAP Center in San Jose, California
Well, Fabian Zetterlund returns to San Jose, after being swapped for Zack Ostapchuk last season. These two teams have a bit of a history of trades, considering Joshua Norris was originally a Sharks pick. Also, former Sen Adam Gaudette has five goals and six points in 17 contests for the Sharks, as was an off-season signing. In any case, this is an interesting matchup for another reason. In two or three years time, if not sooner, this could be a very competitive matchup. It seems that Ottawa is entering their window of contention. Moreover, San Jose is up-and-coming, and will aim for competitiveness within the aforementioned timetable. Today, Ottawa should have an on-paper advantage, it’s mostly about execution.
Thanks to a late Drake Batherson goal, the Sens started their western road trip on the right foot. They beat the the young star Leo Carlsson and the Anaheim Ducks 3-2, and now it’s time for Macklin Celebrini, and his Sharks side. In net, it will feature two goalies with similar starts, in terms of wins and losses. Yaroslav Askarov is 7-5-1, while Linus Ullmark is 7-5-4 are both teams’ perspective, expected starters. We will add our disclaimer at this time, please scour social media for the latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy roster.
The Big Story in San Jose is Celebrini
We are in San Jose, and we need to talk about Macklin Celebrini. The Sens couldn’t even slow down Celebrini last year. One game he even played over 25 minutes, yowzersss…Celebrini is here to stay. It remains unknown if he can make Team Canada in February for the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics.
Celebrini is among the leaders in the NHL scoring race this season. He enters play today tied for third with Connor Bedard at 31. Throughout Celebrini’s career, he is already up to 94 points in 91 career games. Also, he averages a tad under 20 minutes a night. Furthermore, he is very much a two-way player, and has a hard, accurate shot. Not unlike Tim Stutzle, perhaps. Point is, Celebrini has a good as shot as any of the forwards who are still duking it out for a final Team Canada roster spot.
Along with Celebrini, the Sharks are powered by their youth in Will Smith and William Eklund. They are second and third in team scoring with 20 and 13 points, respectively. They are very much still looking towards the future, but have played well this year. Furthermore, they are 10-8-3 and only one point out of a Wester Conference Wild Card spot.
The Sharks have some interesting pieces on defence, and a couple of those are somewhat familiar. Timothy Liljegren and John Klingberg used to play for the Leafs, even Dmitry Orlov was an Eastern Conference guy. He leads the defence in scoring with 12. One guy to watch, is part of their future Shakir Mukhamadullin. If he can develop into a top-four defenceman, it would help this Shark group take the next step, eventually. He’s not confirmed for the lineup tonight, but someone to keep an eye on down the road, as he continues to refine his all-around game.
What’s the Story for Ottawa
It is interesting for Zetterlund not producing in Sen colours. In San Jose, Zetterlund had a points-per-game of 0.494. You know, basically a point every two games. Conversely, with Ottawa, he has nine points through 40 contests with the club. There are some reasons for it. His ice time is down from 17:29 to 14:15. It likely correlates to his drop in shooting percentage (from 10.7% to 4.4%). Furthermore, his power play distribution is down, too. He was over two minutes a game in San Jose, but less than a minute-and-a-half with the Sens.
He plays a physical game, with 74 hits in 40 Ottawa games, opposed to 378 in 267 career games (that includes his time with the New Jersey Devils and Sens). In terms of his role and opportunity, it does make sense his scoring rate is down. However, it is curious how significant the drop has been. As long as the rest of the Sens are scoring, overall it is not a problem. But for him personally, he’d like to be finding the back of the net more.
For other Senator news, Stephen Halliday did well in his NHL debut Thursday in Anaheim. He recorded his first career point, and is likely to draw in again. In terms of roster moves, Olle Lycksell was placed on waivers. Brady Tkachuk remains out, but hinted at being available within about a week.
The Matchup
The matchup itself has some factors to consider. Ottawa should outscore San Jose. The Sens goals-for-per-game is ninth at 3.25, while the Sharks are tied for 21st at 2.95. Furthermore, the Sens have the tenth best power play at 23.8%, which is a reasonable success rate. However, as we alluded to last time, lately it hasn’t been good. Heading into last game they were one for their last 23 chances on the power play. But thanks to Shane Pinto‘s power play marker versus Anaheim, they went 1/3 last game. It will be interesting if they can find success against the 18th best penalty kill (79.4%). Comparatively, San Jose puts their 20th ranked power play (18.1%), against the 31st penalty kill (69.1%). However, recently they’ve been much better. They should normalize their standing as the season goes along.
One stat that is close between the two sides is shooting percentage. Ottawa is tied for fifth at 12.3% and San Jose slightly back at 12.2%, good for a tie for seventh. Ottawa does have a slight edge in shots on goal rate, 26.5 to 24.1. But that could be offset by the goals-allowed rate. Ottawa is 25th at 3.35, and San Jose is 22nd at 3.19. So, some back and forth in those stats, all-in-all, it should make for a good contest.
NHL Predictions
We like Ottawa to continue the success they found in Anaheim. Look for their depth to over power the Sharks, in an otherwise good matchup.
Prediction: Senators 4 – Sharks 2
Prop Bets
For a Sharks anytime scorer, we talked about him enough, but we like Macklin Celebrini. In his last three games, he has a hat trick, added two assists, and taking eight shots on goal. So, he’s been hot. For Ottawa, we like Dylan Cozens. In his last five, he has one goal and four assists. However, he took six shots on goal last time out versus the Ducks. If he keeps firing, and we think he will, he will find twine.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
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