As we head to the home of the world famous Rideau Canal, the Battle of Ontario 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Series is two games to zero. For this edition of NHL Predictions, we look at the likelihood of the Ottawa Senators being able to make a series of it in Game 3 against the Toronto Maple Leafs. We will discuss both sides of the ledger, so let’s jump on in it!
NHL Predictions as the Toronto Maple Leafs Take On the Ottawa Senators from the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata, Ontario
TV: Sportsnet, CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada, TVA Sports, ESPN2
7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
Eastern Conference Round One Playoff Series: Toronto 2 – Ottawa 0.
The series to this point has been mostly controlled by the Maple Leafs. However, as the Senators clawed back in Game 2 to force overtime, they did accomplish something noteworthy. They showed they can more than compete with the Leafs, if everything goes their way, they can win. For the Leafs, they really just need to stick to their gameplan. So far, whatever head coach Craig Berube has drawn up has worked, so stick to the plan and execute.
The Sens Keys to Victory
We will present two ways that the Ottawa Senators can shift this series. Well, just indulge us for a second if you would please, that there’s two games scheduled in Ottawa. If Ottawa can do one of these two things over each of the next two games, they can possibly secure a victory and another one and get back in this series, before it gets away from them. Not unlike how Game 1 went, that it was over before the Sens knew they were finished their pre-game nap.
One way the Senators can win a game, is have their Vezina-calibre goaltender steal them a game. Why not him? Linus Ullmark has a career .917 save percentage, over his ten-year NHL career. He has been a very steady goalie for a while in this league. In contrast, his playoff record is beginning to add up and perhaps even haunt him to some degree. In his post-season career, he is 3-8-0, with an .876 SV%. If he can play like the star goalie that went 25-14-3 on the Senators in 2024-25, he can help right the ship. And it wouldn’t come a moment too late for faithful followers of Ottawa.
Another approach for the Senators to steal a game, is their power play. In regular season play, the Sens had the 12th ranked power play at 23.7%, but tied for the league lead with 64 total goals. That has been a big part of the formula for how they have won this year. Their goaltending has allowed them to play a low-scoring, style game, with their power play getting them just enough offence. If Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle can get clicking on the power play, the Sens, with the matchup advantage on home ice, could easily get back in the series that way.
What Do the Leafs Need to Do to Fend Off those Pesky Sens?
Keep doing more of the same, based on the analysis in this edition of NHL Predictions. The stars of the Leafs have shone at important times of this series thus far. Mitch Marner‘s beautiful goal from an assist by Auston Matthews to make it 2 – 0 in Game 1 was a big flex and helped guide the Leafs to victory early in that one. This is a very well-constructed and well-coached Toronto side, and Ottawa needs to bring their all if they are to have any chance of advancing over the Maple Leafs.
Let’s be honest, Anthony Stolarz has stolen the spotlight as a Leafs high-end backstop. His .934 SV% through two games of the series are a testament. This has helped alleviate the effect of how well the Sens have competed 5v5. Having Stolarz provide dominating performances can not be understated.
The other key for the Leafs, is also similar to the Sens. They just need to keep the good times rolling. After a Max Domi overtime winner in Game 2, you know the team is flying high. Their power play is over 57% through the first two contests. If the Sens can’t figure out their high-end, offensive point-getters, the series could be over quickly.
NHL Predictions Sens and Leafs
We actually like a big counter-punch from the Ottawa Senators. Game 2 proved the Sens know how to contain the Leafs, for stretches at least, and let their offensive guys do some work. If the Sens can own the matchup game on home ice, keep their discipline, and sprinkle in some finishing, they will come through in an almost do or die scenario. We all know how rare teams come back from 3 – 0 series deficits.
Game 3 Final Score Prediction: 4 – 2 Sens.
If you like a little parlay for a little excitement, how about this little slice of magic. Based on our score, we have Ottawa to cover the spread. If you mix in two guys that could very well find the net for their respective squads, Shane Pinto for the Sens and Matthew Knies for the Buds, you’re not that far out of the stadium. This 3-legger is actually paying nearly +4500. Let’s get, get, get to it, fellas.
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Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
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