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NHL Predictions Saturday Night Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens

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Welcome to an all-Canadian, Atlantic Division clash of NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey. Check out our statistical breakdown, analysis, storylines, and predictions for not just this one, but games all season long. Today we look at the first meeting of the year between the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens. Will the bad blood boil over, or the two sides’  respective skill prevail in this one?

NHL Predictions with the Sens versus the Habs

2024-25 Season Series –  Ottawa went 1 – 3 – 0, outscored 17 – 11

2023-24 Season Series –  Ottawa went 3 – 0 -0, outscoring them 15 – 7

Start Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) – don’t forget, clocks go back an hour tonight.

How to Watch: Hockey Night in Canada; CITY; Sportsnet East; Sportsnet One; TVAS

Location: Le Centre Bell à Montreal, Quebec

The teams have an intense rivalry that has been brewing nicely the past couple of years. Ridly Greig, Nick Cousins, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Arber Xhekaj and others, have all been involved, and for some of it goes back to their rookie camp days. It’s a perfect recipe for a career-long feud between some of the classic characters. What a show. Of course, the rivalry will miss one of its main antagonists (Sen fans might say protagonist) tonight, as Brady Tkachuk sits out after thumb surgery. He remains weeks (but not months) away from a return.

The Sens Side of the Matchup

The Sens are 4-1-1 coming into this one. They seem to have turned the corner following a slow start. Through 12 games, five of their forwards have double digit points. Shane Pinto‘s eight goals is the second-highest goal total in the NHL right now. Also, the Sens power play at 28.9% slightly edges out Montreal’s 28.1%, and they are the sixth and seventh ranked teams in that category. The Sens have the NHL’s top ranked team face-off percentage at 59.7%. In addition, they have the ninth best goals-for-per-game at 3.58. However, they’re not too far off Montreal, who are up in fifth at 3.64 GF/GP. The Sens as a team are seventh best with an expected goal percentage of 53.9%. That’s the positives for the Sens, but unfortunately, their list of negatives is still adding up.

The Sens need to figure out the defensive side of the puck. Linus Ullmark, despite an above .500 winning percentage at 5-4-1, has struggled with a 3.36 goals-against average and an .862 save percentage. The pour stats are not all on the goaltender. For instance, their penalty kill is not good. At 62.2% successful, they sit 31st in the league. Their strong defence unit has yet to really get any rhythm this season. That is outside of one pairing, that of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. They have 19 points combined, thus far. Each of them play a lot. Zub is fifth on the team at 18:50 and Sanderson leads the Sens skaters at 23:42. As you can tell by their ice time distribution, Ottawa does focus on a balanced lineup. Once everybody commits to playing a reliable game, and winning battles for the pucks, the Sens will be all right.

To confirm the Sens lineup, with Leevi Merilainen being sent to Belleville, seems a foregone conclusion Ullmark stars. Also, Matinpalo is in for Spence, and the tougher MacDermid in favour of Olle Lycksell.

The Story from Montreal

If we flip over to Montreal for a minute, and we find that they are a pleasant surprise thus far. They are at 8-3-0, and the fact Ottawa is coming in hot into this one, should make for a great game. It will be curious, however, if the skill on offence that both teams possess will win out over the rough stuff.

Sam Montembeault is confirmed to go for Montreal. But let’s add our disclaimer, to please check for the very latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy roster. Monty has struggled more than Ullmark early on in 2025-26, but has a record of playing well at the Bell Centre, and in those spotlight games, like this one on a Saturday night. Montembeault is 2-3-0 on the campaign, with a 3.82 GAA and an .842 SV%. He should be ready for shots from everywhere if he thinks the Sens think they can beat him by simply throwing pucks on net.

Montreal’s attack is similar to Ottawa in that they rely on top-end skill. Nick Suzuki leads the club with 16 points (but he has just two goals). Moreover, young star defenceman Lane Hutson is up to ten points through the first 11 games. Ottawa will need to be weary of the Habs attack, or this could shape up to be a high-scoring affair.

NHL Predictions

It’s possible the Habs seek revenge for a Nick Cousins on Ivan Demidov slash from the preseason. This game’s plot could go any which way. It could be an example of both teams focusing on what they need to improve on, their collective defensive play, and be a tight, low-scoring contest. However, the next two possibilities are more likely in our estimation. The first option, is that it is a high scoring game, with a run-and-gun style, and lots of speed on display on Saturday night. Or following that theme of high energy, it turns into a rumble, and teams look to even past scores on the ice. That is why the Sens recently added Kurtis MacDermid and like having Tyler Kleven on the blueline. They will be some of the front-runners if the likes of Arber Xhekaj or maybe a Josh Anderson start mixing things up. We like Ottawa, only because they are hot, and will look to take advantage of Montembeault’s shaky start to the season. But it will be a back-and-forth game, no doubt.

Prediction: Senators 5 – Canadiens 3

Prop Bets

To go along with our score prediction, check out a couple anytime scorers. For Ottawa, we like Tim Stutzle to tap in a goal. This game will give him the space and speed to find room to go shelf. Meanwhile, Cole Caufield has been hot to start the season for Montreal, expect him to find twine. If you just took a Sens moneyline win, with those two as anytime goal scorers, odds pay 11-to-1, that would be all right.

Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers – Imagn Images

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