Nicholas Robertson, the Toronto Maple Leafs diminutive forward, is a difficult player to predict their output in 2024-25. The main reason is the unknown factor with Robertson. There are definitely a couple contributing factors to prevent prognosticators of making an accurate prediction when it comes to the 23-year-old. So sit back and as we did previously with Matthew Knies’ point projections for 2024-25, let’s take our best stab at it for Robertson.
Nick Robertson’s Point Projections for the 2024-25 Season
One of the main contributing factors to the high variability in projections for Robertson has been his history of injuries. Robertson has been plagued somewhat with injuries throughout his career and it has hurt his development to some degree. One injury that stands out was his knee injury that caused him to go on long-term injury reserve in February 2021. Besides the injuries, in general, Robertson has been shuttled between the AHL and NHL regularly. The only reason he didn’t spend more time in the AHL last year was his scoring dominance. In just nine games, he had five goals and six assists for 11 points with the Marlies.
If we look at a more current sample, despite having a big up-and-down preseason, Robertson did score the winner in Thursday night’s game against the Montreal Canadiens. Offensively, he does look determined to perform. One trait for Robertson is when he gets an opportunity he will let a hard shot go.
Investigating the Stats of Nick Robertson
In terms of statistics for the Maple Leafs in 2023-24, he is quite effective analytically, as we shall show at 5v5. It is interesting to note that he didn’t rank very well in expected goals as an individual. His iXG/60 was 0.78, right there with Calle Jarnkrok at 0.77. In contrast, someone like Bobby McMann landed at 0.91. Meanwhile, this is statistic that Auston Matthews dominates, at 1.33.
Although you can probably tell where this is headed, there is a statistic that Robertson counters this one from above with it quite impressively. To show his efficiency, his total points per 60 minutes is 2.23. Matthews is more like 2.84. However, a player like John Tavares was lower at 1.99. Therefore, since Robertson’s expected value in iXG/60 ranks him low, but is offset by the fact that his actual TP/60 ranks him high, shows he shifts the scales. Moreover, another stat to investigate is high danger scoring chances. Auston Matthews generates a value of 6.56, as you might guess. Meanwhile, Robertson was down around 2.80. Someone down at that level was David Kampf at 2.76. In any case, Robertson establishes himself as average or above in many analytics.
We can consider that factors like ice time and generating rhythm with his linemates would factor into this equation. Furthermore, that really is an important point on deciphering how many points Robertson will get in 2024-25. For instance, what line will he ultimately play on and how much power play time will he get.
Analyzing the Toronto Maple Leafs Power Play Alignment for 2024-25
What About the Intangibles Robertson Carries?
With all theses considerations, let’s really boil it down to points per 60 minutes and how many total minutes he plays in 2024-25. In 2023-24, Robertson played 56 games for the Leafs. He only skated 11:23 of average ice time and was only on the ice for 45 minutes of power play time. Moreover, his points/60 was overall was at 2.5, which is decent for the lack of power play time shifting the mean. The point is, it wouldn’t be inconceivable to imagine Robertson being around 2.7 or 2.8 given good rotation on the power play. His scoring would further see a jump if he is on the second line, say with William Nylander, opposed to being on the third line. However, the counterargument goes that that would possibly result in a weaker competition.
Still, playing more often, in offensive opportunities, with more talented players is going to ultimately increase your bottom line. Those reasons like who is linemates are really makes it difficult to forecast Nick Robertson’s 2024-25 point totals. We will say he gets regular, but maybe not guaranteed second line minutes. Also, considering he gets power play time, albeit on the second unit, his offensive output should only go up. Look for Robertson to increase his average ice time to upwards of 15 to 16 minutes in 2024-25. If he plays in over 70 NHL games this year, look for Robertson to eclipse 50 points on the season.
Remember, last year in only 56 games, in a very limited role, he had 27 points, which was aided by his 14.6 shooting percentage. If he maintains that kind of shooting percentage, look for him to be more likely to achieve the upper-end of his projection. In other words, he could land closer to 55 points. Interesting enough, similar to our Knies guess, despite the great disparity is reasons why.
Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton – USA TODAY Sports
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