September brings the start of training camp and fantasy hockey. This article projects Rickard Rakell’s point production this year. Similar to our previous point projection on Sidney Crosby, it will be generated through the use of a predictive model that blends scoring rate, age adjustment, team context, and projected durability. The Pittsburgh Penguins do not project as an offensive powerhouse, but they still possess many offensive weapons suitable for fantasy purposes. Rakell, fresh off a career year, is an intriguing case heading into the 2025-26 season.
Age and Team Context Curves
At 32-years-old, Rickard Rakell falls into the age group where production typically begins a gradual decline. Our age curve applies a 0.96 modifier, reflecting a four percent dip from peak production levels. This is a mild adjustment compared to older players, but is crucial in tempering expectations for an aging forward.
Team context also matters. Despite being the focus of many trade rumours, Rakell has yet to be traded. Moreover, the Penguins’ environment provides the forward with both positives and negatives. At even-strength in 2024-25, the Penguins scored 2.95 goals per game, just below the league average of 3.01. However, their 25.8% power play was well above the league average 21.6%, boosting opportunities for Rakell in a scoring role. The model weighs team environment 70% at even strength, and 30% on the power play. This results in a Team Index factor of 1.04, just enough to give Rickard Rakell a slight lift in his total point projection.
Games Played
Durability is critical for any projection. A player’s production only matters as much as they’re available to produce. To balance individual history with league-wide norms, the model uses a weighted three-year average for games played and includes a factor to regress to a league baseline of 69 games (the average for skaters playing in at least 41 games).
For Rakell, the inputs are:
- 2024–25: 81 GP
- 2023–24: 70 GP
- 2022–23: 82 GP
His weighted average from these seasons works out to 78 GP. This regresses down to a projected 75 GP after applying the league baseline. While Rakell isn’t an ironman, his track record of availability remains steady enough to project him as a reliable forward option.
Points-Per-Game (PPG)
The foundation of Rakell’s projection is his scoring rate, measured by weighted points per game over the last three seasons.
- 2024–25: 70 points in 81 games =0.86 PPG
- 2023–24: 37 points in 70 games =0.53 PPG
- 2022–23: 60 points in 82 games =0.73 PPG
The model weighs seasons depending on their recency. 50% for last season, 30% two seasons ago, and 20% three seasons ago. With these numbers, Rakell’s baseline scoring rate comes out to 0.74 PPG. We must then apply the age modifiers and Team Index. After applying the 0.96 age modifier and the 1.04 Team Index, his adjusted scoring rate settles at 0.74 PPG.
Final Projection: Rickard Rakell’s Point Projection
Not all points are created equal, and projecting Rakell’s production requires using context. He spiked to 70 points in 2024-25, which was a career-best season. It is important to note that the season prior saw one of Rakell’s worst seasons with just 37 points. Following that season, Rakell and the Penguins sought out better training and a sports psychologist to get back to the production he knew he was capable of. This led to a 70-point season last year. As such, weighting last season against the previous two helps to understand where his true baseline lies.
Negative linear regression as a result of the age factor pulls Rakell down slightly, but the Penguins’ elite power play, of which he is a big part of, helps keep his projection up. With a projected availability of 75 GP and an adjusted scoring rate of 0.74 PPG, Rakell projects to score 55 points this upcoming season. This 55-point mark represents a negative regression from last season’s totals, but is quite realistic, looking at Rakell’s career in general. As Rakell and other players like Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson are trade candidates, these potential moves could significantly change the context Rakell finds himself in. However, Rickard Rakell is a valuable pick-up for fantasy holders needing some offence.
Main Photo Credit: Kyle Ross – Imagn Images
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