Dylan Holloway joined the St. Louis Blues last season and made an immediate impact. In 77 games, Holloway scored 26 goals and recorded 63 points. At 23 years old, Holloway has the chance to become a core member of the Blues future. As someone with a restricted free agent status, the Blues retain Holloway’s rights through the 2029-30 season. What remains now is to figure out what Holloway’s next contract will look like.
Projecting Holloway’s Next Contract
The offer sheet Holloway signed with the Blues was for two seasons, meaning he is already under contract for the 2025-26 season. The next contract he signs will go into effect starting with the 2026-27 season.
What Holloway Will Want
Holloway’s salary is just under $2.3 million. When he signed this deal, he had played a total of 89 games and scored nine goals. Now he is a 26-goal scorer who broke 60 points. He is going to want a raise on his next contract. If Holloway can replicate that success this season, that will help his cause in earning that raise. This assumes, of course, that he does not sign a contract before the start of the season.
Holloway will likely want a salary comparable to that of other players who scored around 26 goals and were restricted free agents. Jack Roslovic got $4 million after scoring 22 goals. Jesper Bratt got $5.45 million after scoring 26 goals. We can assume Holloway would like a salary ranging from $4 to $ 6 million, based on how the market has looked for a player like him.
The only way this number would increase would be if the Blues sign him to a contract that takes him past the 2029-30 season. However, that is unlikely for reasons we will state below.
What the Blues Will Want
Holloway is someone who has 30-40 goal potential. His chemistry with Jordan Kyrou has the potential to create one of the league’s best duos. If Holloway can become this player, the offer sheet will be one of the best decisions in hockey history.
However, the Blues will not want to get ahead of themselves. Holloway may be coming off a strong season and have strong potential, but the Blues will need to make sure it was not a one-hit wonder.
Since Holloway still has five seasons before becoming an unrestricted free agent, a bridge deal makes the most sense for the Blues. They can sign Holloway to a multi-year contract at a decent value (for both sides) so they can see if he can replicate and exceed his success. Furthermore, this helps protect Holloway from being tendered an offer sheet.
When the time comes, if the Blues believe Holloway can be the player they think he can be, they can then sign him to a long-term contract. The Blues did something similar with Robert Thomas and Kyrou.
What is a Fair Deal?
A two-to-three-year deal seems appropriate for the Blues as well as Holloway. Given that Holloway is already under contract for next season, this would give Holloway three to four additional years under contract without the threat of an offer sheet (after last season, the Blues may have a target on their back when it comes to offer sheets). The Blues would then be able to evaluate Holloway’s play to see if a larger and longer contract is in the works.
Earlier, we established the rate for players like Holloway as ranging between $4 million and $6 million. A fair deal would meet right in the middle at $5 million. This would be about a $2.7 million raise for Holloway.
We propose a two-year, $5 million contract for Holloway. Both the team and the player benefit from it. Furthermore, it paves the way for a potential long-term contract in the future.
Main Photo: Geoff Burke- Imagn Images
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