Welcome back to our extensive 2025 NHL Stanley Cup playoff coverage here at Last Word on Hockey. Today, we feature the second-round playoff series between two of the bigger Stanley Cup contenders, the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Just how will the best-of-seven series turn out? Who has the advantages, and where might there lay some weaknesses? Find out as we discuss all that next, Leafs vs Panthers playoff series preview!
The Leafs vs Panthers 2025 Second-Round Playoff Series Preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers have only met once in their respective post-season histories. That showdown is fairly fresh for Leaf fans, as it was the only other time, besides this year, since 2004 that they qualified for the second round of the playoffs. In those 2023 playoffs, Toronto managed to get by a strong Tampa Bay Lightning squad in the first round. However, the Panthers were a team determined to oust the Lightning for the class of the State of Florida. Really, supremacy for the entire Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division was on line. Especially so, how the Boston Bruins have fallen off.
That year saw the Panthers down the Leafs in just five games, on their way to a Stanley Cup Final appearance. Of course, they did eventually lose to the Vegas Golden Knights. Moreover, that Panthers team had some room to grow, as they did successfully when they captured the 2024 Stanley Cup championship. Perhaps this time around, the Panthers are in risk of trending the other direction. Let’s find out why we could possibly conclude such a thing and whether the Leafs can take advantage.
Before we do that, here is a look at the top players on the all-time playoff goal list from the Leafs vs Panthers series. This sets the tone for the players involved and how they matchup with the entire league in some regards. Marchand is the only one in the top 50. Meanwhile, the other guys are close to one another, each ranking somewhere within the 200s on the all-time playoff goal list.
A Quick Synopsis of their 2024-25 Regular Season Meetings
The 2024-25 regular season series between the two teams really did side with the Panthers. The first game in late November was a 5-1 drubbing in South Florida. Next, the teams split a pair of games in Toronto, with 3-2 scores each time. Finally, at home, Florida downed Toronto in April by a score of 3-1. Florida outshot the Leafs 37 to 18 in that one as well. Also, neither Matthew Tkachuk or Aaron Ekblad were in the lineup for that one. However, two of their more recent acquisitions, Seth Jones and Brad Marchand were playing.
There was an aspect that wasn’t necessarily obvious from the two teams’ regular season series. However, there is a thought process that this year’s edition of the Panthers isn’t quite at the level of the cup-winning 2024 team. For instance, Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad, and Brad Marchand all missed time this year from injury. It wasn’t a lot of time, but collectively, given the stature of all those names, it can be quite impactful.
Furthermore, names like Vladimir Tarasenko and Brandon Montour are gone from last year’s Panther squad. They were somewhat replaced with names like Marchand and Jones, but likely not quite the same level.
The Good and Bad for the Florida Panthers
Another name is that goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has declined. The main reasoning would be his age, 36. In contrast, when you study his regular season numbers, they were fairly comparable to last year’s. He save percentage went from .915 to .905 and his goals-against average was 2.37 to 2.44. So, definitely nothing to write home about. It might be more of his age and the fact he would possibly be getting tired from playing all that hockey. They do also have a competent backup in Vitek Vanecek if push did come to shove.
On the flip side for Florida, their two Sams are playing well. Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett have each had big seasons, that included good opening round performances. Bennett recorded a career-high 51 points, including a nod to Team Canada at the 4 Nations. He’s known as an intense of two-way centre as there is for this type of hockey. Meanwhile, Reinhart has led the Panthers in scoring each of the past two regular season campaigns. He also had a big six points against Tampa in the opening round.
Three Former Cats are now Buds
Next to discuss, is the intersection between the two teams’, from this year and last. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is one of the best third-pairing defenders in the game. Last year he helped Florida to the cup, this year he plays for the Leafs. His inclusion on a deep Leaf blueline is a reason why the balance of power may have shifted slightly. In 2023-24, the depth on the three pairings of the blueline was definitely a position of strength for Florida.
There are two other names that won the cup for the Panthers last year that are now Leafs for the playoff series. Those being Anthony Stolarz and Steven Lorentz. Now Lorentz impact could be questionable, as he only skated in 38 games last regular season for the Panthers. Conversely, he got regular rotation in the playoffs, playing 16 games.
Then of course Stolarz, whose .926 SV% actually led the entire NHL in the regular season. However, fatigue is beginning to become a question for the big 6’6″ netminder. His career high in games played in the NHL was this year (34). Now with some playoff action under his belt, will his play dip? Fortunately, and not unlike the Panthers, the Leafs also have a more than competent backup, Joseph Woll. But, we might give the Panthers a slight edge. You’d have to think they have the book on Stolarz. He did play in three of those regular season matchups. The first game saw him surrender four goals on 23 shots. He did improve in the next two, but the .886 combined SV% may raise some eyebrows.
The Leafs Top Players Will Be Important to their Success or Failure
The Core 4 came to play in round one versus the Ottawa Senators in the Battle of Ontario. Also, they showed up in two of the most important games, the first one and the clincher. The combination of William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and John Tavares were the top-four scorers for the Leafs in the round one series. All told, they combined for nine goals and 29 points overall. If the Leafs are to come out on top, they need them producing like they did.
A Couple More Leafs vs Panthers Playoff Series Intangibles
One player from each team we haven’t really mentioned will be extremely significant. That being Barkov for the Panthers and Matthew Knies for Toronto. Knies had three goals in round one. In addition, through 20 career playoff games, he’s racked up 50 hits. He is a machine and he is showing he’s going to be worth every penny he earns on this next contract. Meanwhile, Barkov is the ultimate two-way, shutdown man. His Stanley Cup ring from last year shutting down Connor McDavid is evidence. If you want more, his two Selke Trophy wins in the past four years hammer the point home. If the Core 4 struggle in this series, he’s going to be a huge reason as to why.
Toronto Maple Leafs Take Advantage Of Ottawa Senators’ Poor Discipline
The Panthers are currently favoured, and it isn’t as close as you might expect, around -170. However, given the Leafs performance in round one, especially from the Core 4, we side with them. Combine that with the ideas we discussed, that the Panthers aren’t as good as they were last year. Leafs in seven games.
Main Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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