Today is yet another of NHL player point projections from us here at Last Word On Hockey. And if you have been following along, you’d be asking yourself who could possibly be next? It is of course, one of the top of his rookie class from last year, this is Macklin Celebrini’s 2025-26 point projection. What better way to spend your holiday morning in Canada and regular ol’ Tuesday in the United States of America, or wherever you follow along from around the globe, than with a coffee and an article from us right here, right now.
The 2025-26 Point Projection for the Sharks Teenage Phenom Macklin Celebrini
We are going to say something, that leading Sportbooks have his over-under at 67.5. Ah, we like the over. This is after all Macklin Celebrini. He was the 2024 NHL Entry Draft first-overall selection to the San Jose Sharks.
One comparable we will throw out there is Jonathan Toews, you know, of the Winnipeg Jets. It is somewhat a stylistic comparison, but there is another reason, too. However, we will add that despite being a comparison based on style, we do think Celebrini has a higher-potential offensive upside, than did Toews throughout his career. In fact, Toews’ career-high point total of 81 came back in 2018-19, which doesn’t seem all that long ago.
Centre Celebrini is On That Puck Just Like a Young Jonathan Toews
Toews was drafted third overall in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft. Now, we will add the caveat that Toews did play a year at the University of North Dakota. That year after being drafted, at UND, he scored 18 goals and 28 assists for 46 points in 34 games. Not to mention, a heroic effort for the gold medal winning Team Canada at the 2007 World Junior Hockey Championships.
Oh, and let’s not forget, as we mentioned, the other thing Toews and Celebrini had in common, is they both attended Shattuck St. Mary’s prep school.
Now, in terms of early returns in point estimates, Toews had 24 goals and 30 assists for 54 points in 64 games in his rookie campaign. Then, he followed it up with 69 points in 82 games. Therefore, we see that as somewhere around where Celebrini might find himself at this point of his career. Last year, Celebrini had 25 goals and 38 assists for 63 points in 70 games. If we can assume that Celebrini maintains his level of scoring, he will easily eclipse that 67-point threshold.
Another possible comparable is Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks, as they both played in the NHL the year they were drafted. Moreover, as compared to Toews, Bedard likely has more of a similar, offensive upside. Also, not to mention, they were consecutive first-overall NHL draft picks. So, in 68 games in 2023-24, Bedard was hot with 22 goals, 39 assists for a total of 61 points. He followed it up right at that magic number for Celebrini. Last year, Bedard managed 67 points in a full 82-game schedule. However, we think Celebrini plays a more complete game than Bedard, at least at this point of their development. That is why the comparison to Toews. So, we expect a more linear positive development curve for Celebrini to follow.
We will add, a player like Matvei Michkov, seems to be a good strong competitor for Celebrini, and well Bedard, too. They will play against one another and try to thrive, and challenge each other in that their careers should have plenty of overlap in the years to come. Furthermore, Michkov had a strong season in Sochi of the KHL, after being drafted. He recorded 41 points in 47 games, numbers that rival the likes of Kirill Kaprizov or Ivan Demidov. It seems like his 63 points from last year, are a little more attainable.
Shifting the Focus to Celebrini and the Sharks
Let’s also not forget that Celerini’s injury, limited his production. Although, he did well to come back and put together a strong freshman campaign.
Will Smith and the rest of Celebrini’s supporting cast and linemates will be influential as well. They were 3-4 in NHL rookie scoring last year. However, they don’t typically see ice time together. That will likely change on the power play, as they are an excellent 1-2 punch of speed and offensive ability. For Celebrini, it is quite possible he maintains the same linemates on the Sharks first line from last year. William Eklund, is only 22, and is doing a fine job developing in his own right. He had 17 goals and 41 assists for 58 points in 77 games, showing he has the abilities to be an excellent puck distributor. In addition, their right winger is Tyler Toffoli. The 33-year-old, had a 30-goal campaign last year, his third-in-a-row, in fact.
The Sharks potentially also did a good job of adding a couple pieces to help out offensively. At 33, Jeff Skinner isn’t too far removed from a 35-goal, 2022-23. He’s a reliable forward, who can score when given the opportunities.
Philipp Kurashev is someone who came from the Hawks, and can still become an NHL sniper. He struggled last year, but in 2023-24, he had 18 goals and 36 assists for 54 points, as a 24-year-old. For a player skilled like Celebrini, it just allows for the possibility of just another player to find good rhythm and chemistry with Celebrini.
You Must Consider his Surroundings
If you consider historically, 63 points as an 18-year-old had Celebrini tied with active players Nathan MacKinnon and Jeff Skinner. However, that they both played a full 82-game season it is interesting. Both of them struggled in a similar fashion, no doubt, in their second season. MacKinnon only managed 14 goals and 24 assists in 64 games, and Skinner 44 points in 64 contests.
Nico Hischier, again, like Celebrini is classified as a more complete player, opposed to being a perceived point-getter. He was also drafted first overall (2017). In his first NHL season, 2017-18, he had 20 goals, 32 assists, for 52 points. That was in a full 82 games. Next, he had 47 points in 69 games, so he did have a slightly better pace, but around the same scoring rates from his first-to-second NHL seasons.
The thinking behind the majority of this discussion, is that the number of high-drafted, and 18-year-old NHLers, to have big first seasons, isn’t all that extensive. It’s something like saying Bedard, among active players, is fifth with 128 points as a 19-year-old. The point is, Celebrini is already in fairly select company with his productivity. The only real question, is whether he can improve on his 2024-25. It seems a player of his pedigree, will develop into an excellent, NHL player, regardless of any potential sophomore slump.
Looking Directly At his 2024-25 Stats for Our Final Prediction
Well, let’s be honest, he already scored 63 points in 70 games as an NHL rookie. He’s more than figured out how to score consistently at the NHL level. He notched 22 points last year on the power play. With a potential to be on a strong power play, with the likes of Smith, Toffoli, Eklund, and others as options, we think the Sharks power play improves this year. Therefore, Celebrini could easily get up-to-ten more points this year around.
Celebrini was already playing 19:47 of ice time, so he can’t increase that all that much, can he? Well, maybe. But we will add that it further goes to show how complete of a player he already is in the show.
He’s not afraid to shoot with 236 shots-on-goal, in just the 70 games played. Perhaps he bumps up the total, and his 10.6% shooting percentage, further giving him potential to increase his offensive output. Heck, we already suggested to pencil him in for at least 68 points, probably not even in a full season.
But, his ultimate success does rely on his teammates, too, as we have been discussing. Will Toffoli be finishing, or can head coach Ryan Warsofsky find an efficient replacement?
The Michael Misa factor is somewhat unclear. He is a fantastic, young NHLer in his own right. Just like Smith, just like Celebrini.
In any case, it isn’t by a huge margin. However, given all the factors we have discussed, here is our final point projection. We like Celebrini to improve on his goal total, so put him down for 27-32. Then, we like someone who is already a playmaker, you know, if the situation so calls for it. We think he is in that 42-47 assist area. For someone quarterbacking a power play, that should be improved from finishing 26th at 18.6% efficient last year, that is more than an achievable number.
Main Photo Credit: Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images
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The post Today is San Jose Shark Macklin Celebrini’s 2025-26 Point Projection appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.