In terms of point projections for the Toronto Maple Leafs superstar, will Mitch Marner score 100 points in 2024-25? The short answer is, if he plays more than 77 games, yes! Since his second year in the NHL, the three seasons he played more than 69 games, he’s had seasons of 94, 97, and 99 points. It seems at this point the magic 100 milestone is taunting number 16 for the Buds. Being this is a contract year, and the new hope with head coach Craig Berube, this will be the year he gets it done. But, just how can we make that assertion?
Mitch Marner’s Point Projections Looking Strong
Over the past few seasons, Marner has been remarkably consistent. Since the 2019-20 campaign, Marner has been humming along at a combined mean of 21:26 minutes a night. That is just an incredible pace for a forward. Furthermore, his points per 60 minutes (P/60) have been very similar for a while now. If we journey back to the 2018-19 season, his value has been between 3.2 and 3.9 since that time. As a baseline, if you play 75 games, and play 20 minutes a night, you would need a P/60 of 4.0 to achieve 100 points.
Therefore, just based on regressing to the mean over the long run, combined with the fact there is no significant reason to suggest a deviation from the norm, we can assume this is a suitable prediction based on a couple aspects. For one, Marner should be able to maintain his recent ice time. Also, there’s nothing indicating Marner will not be placed in similar offensive situations. Marner has been in the top-five among Leaf forwards in both offensive and defensive zone starts each of the last two seasons. That is to say, his defensive responsibilities do little, if nothing at all, to take away from his offensive production. Moreover, his top power play assignment is all but guaranteed. Also, whether he plays on the first or second line regularly, he will still be on an offensively-minded, top-six line configuration.
Just for completeness of our thought process, consider these calculations. If Marner plays 21 minutes a night, for 78 games, with a P/60 of 3.7, he would end up with 101 points on the campaign. Therefore, as we alluded to, the only unknown variable is who Marner’s linemates are on a regular shift. Again, not the power play, that won’t change.
Discussing the Other Pieces of the Top Line Puzzle
The normal top line for the Leafs last year comprised of Marner with Matthew Knies and Auston Matthews. That should, for all intensive purposes, stay the same. Furthermore, that line is extremely productive and efficiently in doing so.
They had an xGoals% of 58.7% and more impressively, an actual goal% of 65.7%. Even swapping out Knies with Bobby McMann or Pontus Holmberg to try to spread Knies offence throughout the lineup, wouldn’t tangibly take away from Marner’s production.
Marner did see some time with John Tavares periodically but don’t look for that to be a regular thing going forward. That would hurt Marner’s production realistically with Tavares’ negative regression. However, we don’t believe the amount that happens to significantly affect Marner’s total output.
One interesting topic for conversation is the chemistry that was seen between Marner and Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi. It is possible for Marner and Domi to link up in the 2024-25 campaign. Conversely, in terms of point projections for Mitch Marner, again, don’t look at this to hurt his production. Domi is a tremendous distributor of the puck and not afraid to go into the dirty areas. Also, he has a career-high of 72 points.
Doing It On their Own
In the past, there have been examples of great players elevating their play in light of the absence of their supporting cast. If we look at the 2009-10 season for the Vancouver Canucks, Daniel Sedin only played 63 games that year. It seems his brother, Henrik Sedin, picked up the pace. That year had Henrik put up 83 assists and 112 points, capturing the brothers’ first of two Art Ross scoring titles. (Daniel would win the following year). Furthermore, Henrik won the Hart Trophy as league MVP in 2009-10. (Daniel won the Pearson Award, but finished second in Hart voting the next year). Evgeni Malkin is another good example, who captured all three awards (Hart, Pearson Art Ross) in 2011-12, when he scored 50 goals and 59 assists for 109 points. (Sidney Crosby only played 22 games that year).
Therefore, even if Marner ends up playing with Domi or Tavares more than expected, don’t anticipate a downgrade, if anything, he kicks it into high gear, and carries the baton past the finish line himself, just like one Andre de Grasse for the 2024 Paris Olympic triumphant gold medal men’s 4 x 100m Team Canada.
Main photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
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