There’s a long way to go in the season, but the catcher has had a great start to his.
I am publishing this knowing full well that I’ve likely condemned him to a tough series, so apologies to Patrick Bailey and his agent, but the truth is that the 24-year old catcher is currently the best player on the San Francisco Giants.
NERD: Um, small sample size, normie?
ME: Enjoy your lonely existence, nerd! I’m vibing.
The Bailey vibes are very good, perhaps even immaculate. I’m still riding high on the incredible 4-for-4 game he had on Saturday for his Bobblehead Day, which peaked with his astonishing 2-run home run:
Every call, angle, and sound you need from Patrick Bailey’s first career splash hit
(and the first splash hit this season) pic.twitter.com/uHVWR4radN
— KNBR (@KNBR) April 21, 2024
While watching the game, I felt that Patrick Bailey was the coolest person currently alive on planet Earth. I didn’t interrogate the thought, merely road the feeling. I love when my fanaticism generates some legitimate hyperbole. With all that said, Patrick Bailey really is the best Giant right now and I have evidence.
Let’s start with his purity of heart.
Patrick Bailey after realizing his first career splash hit landed directly into a kayak
“That’s cool… Does that still count I guess? pic.twitter.com/LTAnmNpih7
— KNBR (@KNBR) April 20, 2024
Well, that’s a good question. Does a ball that lands in a kayak in McCovey Cove count as a Splash Hit? No splash, no splash hit… right? I suspect scholars will be debating this for centuries, even though the Giants settled it in the moment by putting it onto the in-stadium counter as the 103rd Splash Hit by a Giant.
That said… it’s not yet on their Splash Hit webpage! I’m sure it will be at any moment, of course, but I want to live in the question for a moment longer: I don’t think it should count! Splash… it’s right there in the name! If fan interference can invalidate all sorts of hits, it should invalidate an informal tracker. That ball did not get wet. And, to Bailey’s credit, he questioned its validity! Take it away and maybe it’ll compel him to try harder.
Okay, that was a real digression. Let’s look at some of his numbers, I guess. After all, looking at numbers through 21 games terrifies and delights any baseball fan because it allows us to make grand proclamations like Patrick Bailey is the best player on the San Francisco Giants.
The switch-hitting catcher is hitting .321/.387/.528 (.915 OPS) in 63 plate appearances, which translates to a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 153. That 153 wRC+ is 3rd-best in the NL out of all catchers, behind William Contreras and Willson Contreras, and #4 in MLB (Salvador Perez is tearing it up at the plate to start the year). It’s 29th in MLB, too, just behind Mike Trout (154) and tied with Trea Turner. In nearly half as many at bats, we can have still more fun and say that he has a similar walk rate (11.1%) to Shohei Ohtani (10.9%).
Of course, it’s nice that Bailey contributes positively with the bat, but he’s most important on the defensive side of the ball. We all spent a decent chunk of the offseason pondering the possibility of Bailey being the best defensive catcher in Baseball and one of the best defenders, period. It’s still the case that he’s excellent, but he hasn’t shot out of the gates far in front of the field. His +2.5 Defensive Runs Above Average is good enough for 15th in MLB out of all positions, which is still fantastic, but the Patrick Bailey I have in my head is a guy who is plainly top 3 in defense — and, just to prove I’m not being delusional, despite playing in fewer than 100 games last year, he led all of MLB in Defensive Runs AA at +25.5.
But… just to show the current top 3…
- Orlando Arcia, SS, MIL — +4.8
- Marcus Semien, 2B, TEX — +4.2
- Nick Ahmed, SS, SFG — +4.1
So, it’s still early and he’s doing great by all measures. His 0.9 fWAR leads the team, better even than Logan Webb (0.7). Sustainable? Definitely not, but fun to think about. Patrick Bailey as the Buster Posey heir apparent is an idea some of us have flirted with and so him taking a step forward and into that role maybe wouldn’t be a total shock and it’d be a welcome surprise, but really, we’re talking small sample sizes here.
There remains a faint whiff of taint involving these numbers. He has a .385 BAbip, which the deep stat nerds will tell you means he’s due for statistical regression. Of course, it all depends on what you want to believe. When a pitcher has a bad game, many fans supporting said pitcher cite BAbip and when a batter they don’t like has a great game they cite BAbip — it’s basically a stat designed to clip wings or give a pat on the back.
Statcast hates his blocking — he was 9th percentile last season, 12th percentile here in early going — but loves a lot about the rest of his game… except the 57th percentile pitch framing pales in comparison to the 100th percentile he registered last season. All of his hitting metrics are way up from last year, but again, BAbip + small sample size = don’t make any judgments based on numbers.
NERD: Smart, rational fans do not make any judgments based on small sample sizes or how they feel about outcomes. Negative and positive numbers are due for regression.
I’m having fun with this little straw man because I don’t believe he’s far from actual people. The Giants haven’t yet taken off, so I’m enjoying the bits I can: Jung Hoo Lee, Logan Webb, and Patrick Bailey. Let’s all do that!